Housing Data Updates: A Surprising Surge in Housing Starts | Episode 083 | 12-19-2023

In our last segment, we discussed the positive NEHB Housing Sentiment Index, and in today's episode, we're excited to share more good news with the Housing Starts and Building Permits report. Housing Starts defied expectations, surging by an impressive 15% in November, marking the most significant monthly increase in six months. The focus was on single-family home starts, particularly in the Northeast and the South regions. However, Building Permits, showed a modest decline, adding a twist to the narrative. As we analyze the housing data, we observe the aftermath of the October peak in mortgage rates at 7.9%, which has since dropped nearly a full percent to around 7%. For any questions or comments, please reach out to us at podcast at Verdence dot com.

Hello, this is Megan Horneman, the Chief Investment Officer for Verdence Capital Advisors, coming to you today with our regular segment of Markets with Megan, and yesterday we talked about the NEHB Housing Sentiment Index and how that was the first good report we've gotten on housing in quite some time, and today we've followed that up with Housing Starts and Building Permits Another good report. There's not much to really be negative about this. Housing Starts were actually supposed to fall almost 1% in November and instead they jumped 15% for the month. That was the biggest monthly increase in six months and it was concentrated in single family home starts as opposed to multi-family home starts and also it was led by the Northeast and the South Building Permits. This is a little bit different. They were, you know, a little bit different story. Remember, building Permits are a leading indicator for future housing starts and they actually did decline. So that is. You know. We'll see how that filters into the other housing data as we get those construction numbers, but Building Permits did drop modestly for the month.

So what we're seeing with the housing data is we had a peak in the mortgage rate in October, about 7.9%. It's since fallen almost a full percent. It's down about 7% and what we're seeing is that delayed reaction in some of the data. So we're getting the lower mortgage rate is now starting to coincide with some better data. On the housing front, we'll get back some more information this week from housing. We'll get existing home sales. We'll also get some other things that will come to you with will be consumer confidence, and then we're going to round out this week with the much anticipated PCE deflator and remember this is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, so we'll be back with more this week. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to reach out to podcast at Verdence dot com. Thank you.