017: First Quarter GDP Report 06-29-23

How would you like to peel back the layers of the recent GDP report for the first quarter? Prepare to dig deeper as Megan Horneman, Verdence Capital Advisors' Chief Investment Officer, reveals the critical factors behind the surprisingly positive outcome. She'll guide you through the equity markets' upbeat reaction and explain how an uptick in exports and personal consumption have played a starring role. But don't be fooled, this report is essentially backward-looking, and Megan is here to clear the fog.

Megan alerts us to less obvious details in the report that may not bode as well for the future as it seems. She'll explore the weakening service sector and capex spending, both of which were vital contributors to the first quarter's success, but can they hold up under scrutiny? Despite the rosy first quarter figures, she gives us a reality check about the less than promising outlook for the second quarter data. So, if you're eager to decode the complexity of GDP reports and what they could mean for the future, this episode is your gateway.

Hello, this is Megan Horniman, the Chief Investment Officer for Verdance Capital Advisors, and we're coming to you today with our regular Markets with Megan. We're going to talk about the GDP report that came out for the first quarter and, specifically, how the equity markets have reacted. The GDP report this is the third reading on it. It came out better than expected and better than the prior two readings. It was primarily led by an increase in exports as well as personal consumption, so the equity markets have rallied strongly on this report today, thinking that we can really orchestrate this soft landing in the economy And let's just step back for a second break this down. Yes, it was a good report, but the most important thing is this is backward looking And with a personal consumption increase.

That we saw in this report was primarily led by spending in the service sector, and I've been on these podcasts in the past talking about how the monthly data that we get on the service sector is weakening pretty rapidly and we're actually looking at it almost into contraction territory. Also, capex spending, which helped this report in the first quarter. Capex spending has been weakening if you look at the regional surveys, so we aren't that optimistic that these positive things can lead into the second quarter. It's a backward looking report. It still gets market moving attention, but we're going to take it as it is. First quarter was better than some had expected, but we've already started to see a lot of data for the second quarter and it doesn't look like it's going to translate into the second quarter. So that's all I have today on the GDP report. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to reach out to us at podcastsatverdencecom. Thank you.