Thanksgiving Economics: An Optimistic Look at Decreased Holiday Costs | Episode 76 | 11-21-23

In today's special Thanksgiving episode of Markets with Megan, we're taking a moment to express gratitude for some positive economic and asset class developments this year.  We're excited to share that the cost of a Thanksgiving meal this year has declined, according to the American Farm Bureau. Equities have rebounded significantly compared to last year, with the S&P 500 up about 20% year to date. While inflation remains a concern, it has eased from last year, and travel expenses have become more budget-friendly, with airfare down 13%, car rentals down 10%, and gasoline prices dropping by 25 cents compared to last year. Commodity prices, including natural gas, have softened as well compared to this time last year. As you gather around the Thanksgiving table, we hope you enjoy the company around you and have a great Holiday! If you have any comments or feedback, reach out to us at podcast at Verdence dot com, thank you!

Hello, this is Megan Horneman, the Chief Investment Officer for Verdence Capital Advisors. We're coming to you today with our regular segment of Markets. With Megan, we typically bring you economic data. It comes out on a regular basis, so it's easy to report on this and give you the rationale behind what the market actions are. But today we're going to take a little bit of a different spin. We're going to get in the festive spirit, given that it is Thanksgiving this week. We're going to talk about some of the things, from an economic and asset class perspective, that we're thankful for this year. I know I've outlined some pretty dismal economic data that we've seen over the past few months, but we're going to take a look at some of this. We're going to look at some of the positives.

Well, first of all, for those of you that are celebrating Thanksgiving on Thursday, you will be happy to find out that, according to the American Farm Bureau, the cost of a Thanksgiving meal has actually declined this year. It was up last year, but it's actually declined. It's now going to cost a. The average cost for Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people is about $61.17, and that's compared to $64.05 last year. Some of the big things that have declined. You can gorge on. Turkey actually was one of the big ones. We also saw weakness in whipping cream. So if you have like that pumpkin pie with whipped cream on it as well as fresh cranberries, so we can take that little food for thought this Thursday as you sit down at the Thanksgiving table and just know that we are seeing prices come down. That does bring us into some of the other things from an economic and asset class perspective that are getting that we've seen that are not as bad as they were last year.

Things are not great. The economy is still in a very difficult situation. Inflation, we realize, feels high for so many, but compared to this Thanksgiving last year, these do look a little bit brighter. When you look at equities, for example, I mean coming into Thanksgiving last year the S&P 500 was on pace for its worst annual performance since the Great Recession. Well, the S&P 500 now is up about 20% year to date. I mean that's a very concentrated 20% up year to date if you are invested in those seven magnificent technology names. But regardless, all of the major indices across in the US are up at least modestly this year. It's a very different picture than last year. Inflation it's still an issue. It's still being felt. It's part of the reason why the economy is slowing, because it's really squeezing consumers. But it is much better this year than it was last Thanksgiving. If you look at the consumer price index, it was growing over 7% last year when you sat down to the Thanksgiving table. This year that has actually slowed. Now it's growing about 3% a year. So we are in the right direction. With inflation Still is a problem, but we are in the right direction.

Some of the other prices that have come down. That might be interesting for those people that are traveling for Thanksgiving. The airfare is down about 13% from last year. If you're renting a car, that's down about 10% since last year. And then actually the price of gasoline is down 25 cents since last year. So for those doing a hit in the road or hitting the skies, this is a little bit better for you than it was last year.

And then, lastly, don't forget, from a commodity standpoint, we've had a lot of softening in commodities compared to this point last year. Last year there was a lot of concern around natural gas, given the war between Russia and Ukraine. Well, natural gas prices are down about 60% since last Thanksgiving. Some of the other declines in commodity prices have been nickel, wheat, corn, aluminum, and even crude oil is lower than it was Thanksgiving of last year. So while we want to wish everyone a very happy Thanksgiving, we hope this gives you just maybe some thoughts to have around the dinner table as you're discussing the year and what you see going forward. That's all that we have. If you have any comments or feedback, please feel free to reach out to podcast at Verdence dot com. Thank you.