Leading Indicator Falls in 35 of 37 Months | S2 E033 | 04-21-25
The latest economic data shows the Leading Indicator Index for March slides 0.7% lower, exceeding the expected 0.5% decline and marking its 35th negative reading in 37 months. This persistent downward trend carries significant historical weight—never before has such a pattern failed to precede a recession.
Monday’s Markets with Megan breaks down this critical economic barometer, examining what’s driving the decline and what it means for investors. Consumer expectations have plummeted, stock prices have pulled back significantly, and manufacturing new orders continue to contract. Credit indicators and interest rate spreads are also contributing negatively, though to a lesser extent.
Not all signals flash red, however. The labor market continues to show resilience through steady jobless claims and stable average work week figures. Building permits also made a positive contribution, suggesting the housing sector may be finding its footing despite higher interest rates. These green shoots provide nuanced context to the otherwise concerning economic outlook.
The unprecedented nature of this extended negative streak in the Leading Indicator Index raises important questions about our economic trajectory. As market volatility continues, staying informed about these economic indicators becomes increasingly crucial for investors and business leaders alike. Subscribe to Markets with Megan for ongoing analysis of these market-moving developments and their implications for your financial decisions.
