Inflation Drops, Doubts Rise | S2 E109 | 12-18-25
Inflation finally delivered some encouraging signals — but the details matter.
Megan Horneman breaks down the November CPI report, which showed inflation continuing to cool on a year-over-year basis, even as data disruptions and missing monthly readings complicate the picture.
Headline CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, while core inflation came in at 2.6%. Food prices, energy services, shelter, and medical services all remain elevated, reminding investors that sticky inflation pressures haven’t disappeared.
Markets are reacting optimistically, with growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as January, but Megan explains why that confidence may be premature given the noise in government data and incomplete inflation readings.
📊 In this episode:
➡️ What the November CPI report really tells us
➡️ Why missing data matters for inflation trends
➡️ Which categories remain stubbornly high
➡️ Why markets are pricing in a Fed cut
➡️ What to watch in the full December inflation report
With cleaner data expected in January, the next CPI release could be far more decisive for Fed policy and market direction.
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