Does Small Business Data Hint at a Fed Shift? | S3 E158 | 08-11-26
The July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index just came in better than expected and it’s now at its highest level since August 2025. Understand why this report matters, especially since small businesses make up nearly half of the private sector labor force.
Underneath the headline number, the details tell an interesting story. Job openings, hiring plans, and capital expenditure intentions all jumped, painting a different picture than what showed up in last week’s jobs report. With the CPI report landing tomorrow, this data could shape how markets read the Fed’s next move.
In this episode:
– Why the NFIB Index just hit its highest reading since August 2025
– What rising job openings and hiring plans could signal for the labor market
– How capital expenditure plans, partly tied to AI spending, jumped to a multi-year high
– Why small business hiring sentiment looks so different from last week’s jobs report
– What tomorrow’s CPI report could mean for the Fed’s next decision
If you’re trying to make sense of where the labor market and the Fed go from here, this one’s worth five minutes of your time. Subscribe so you don’t miss next week’s breakdown.
For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM
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