Ceasefire Rally – Reality Check? | S3 E136 | 04-08-26
Markets surged on April 8 as investors reacted to news of a temporary two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices plunged, yields moved lower, and inflation expectations eased — fueling a powerful relief rally in equities.
In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman explains what’s really driving the move and why caution is still warranted. While the market is celebrating a pause in tensions, the details of the ceasefire remain unclear, the Strait of Hormuz situation is still highly fluid, and broader geopolitical risks have not disappeared.
Megan breaks down:
Why crude oil’s sharp drop is boosting optimism
How lower inflation expectations are helping markets
Why hedge fund short covering may be amplifying the rally
What ongoing Middle East tensions could mean for stocks, bonds, oil, gold, and the dollar
Why this may be a rally to respect — but not necessarily chase
Her view: welcome the relief, but stay grounded. Valuations still are not especially attractive, technicals are not compelling, and the risk of continued volatility remains high.
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