Inflation, Spending & a Fed on Edge | S3 E112 | 01-14-26
Headlines say inflation is coming down — but is it really?
Verdence CIO Megan Horneman challenges the popular inflation narrative by breaking down the latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) reports.
While headline inflation numbers appear to show improvement, core inflation remains above the Fed’s target, and the areas consumers feel most — food, housing, utilities, healthcare, and services — continue to rise sharply. Understand why inflation is becoming disguised in the data, especially within sticky service-sector prices the Federal Reserve cannot easily control.
The episode also gets into consumer spending, highlighting why strong retail sales don’t necessarily signal economic strength. With spending data not adjusted for inflation, rising sales may actually point to persistent price pressure, especially in categories like autos, gas, building materials, restaurants, and clothing — many of which are also vulnerable to tariff-driven cost increases.
📊 Learn why
➡️ Why CPI and PPI data may be understating inflation risks
➡️ How services inflation is driving everyday cost pressures
➡️ Why food, housing, healthcare, and utilities remain elevated
➡️ The disconnect between weak consumer confidence and strong spending
➡️ Why inflation-adjusted data matters more than headlines
➡️ The risk of inflation re-accelerating in 2026
➡️ What this means for Fed policy and markets
Markets have been under pressure recently as investors begin to question whether inflation is truly under control, and whether the Fed is paying close enough attention to the most persistent price pressures in the economy.
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