Did January Really Predict the Rest of 2026? | S3 E117 | 02-03-26
January is often seen as a roadmap for the rest of the year — and the markets may already be sending signals for 2026. In today’s episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down how stocks, bonds, commodities, and the economy performed in January and what investors should take away from it.
We dive into the historical “January Effect” and why a positive January has historically led to positive full-year returns for the S&P 500. Megan also explores what’s happening beneath the surface of the economy, including slowing job creation, resilient consumer spending, mixed inflation data, and rising service-sector prices.
This episode covers key market trends investors should be watching:
• What January market performance says about the rest of 2026
• Labor market shifts and why unemployment is ticking lower
• Inflation progress — and where it’s still sticky
• Why international markets outperformed U.S. stocks
• Small-cap stocks beating large caps
• Rising yields and the Fed’s hawkish tone
• Energy prices surging amid geopolitical tension
• Gold and silver volatility after a historic start to the year
Whether you’re a long-term investor or just trying to make sense of market volatility, this episode helps cut through the headlines and focus on what actually matters.
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