WEEKLY INSIGHTS

July 1, 2024
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Key Takeaways:

  • Consumer confidence falls again.
  • Sales of new homes fall at fastest pace since November.
  • Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows signs of easing.
  • Small caps lead U.S. equities higher; growth still outperforms.
  • Fixed income sector performance mixed, yields rise.
  • Commodities fall despite rising energy prices.

Weekly Economic Recap — Inflation Shows Signs of Easing, but Confidence Continues Lower

Consumer confidence as tracked by the Conference Board fell in June. Business expectations deteriorated further, as only 12.5% of consumers expect business conditions to improve in the next six months, the smallest share since 2011.

The increase  in home prices in the U.S. eased slightly in April according to the S&P CoreLogic Index, which increased 7.2% YoY (vs. 7.5% YoY last month). All twenty cities the index tracks showed price gains in April. The price gains were led by Boston, San Francisco and Seattle.

Sales of new homes in the US fell at the fastest pace (-11.3%) since September 2022 as buyers continue to contend with elevated home prices and mortgage rates. The median sales price was relatively unchanged in May and the months’ supply of new homes rose to the highest level since October 2022.

Orders placed with US factories for business equipment unexpectedlly fell in May. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment ex. aircraft and military hardware, matched its largest drop of the year. Durable goods orders increased by 0.1% driven by orders for military aircraft.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE Core, increased at the slowest annual pace since March 2021 (+2.6% year-over-year). Housing prices remain sticky, leading the increase at the headline level. Overall prices were held steady, however, helped by declining prices for goods and energy.

Weekly Market Recap — Small-Caps Outperform and Growth Trade Carries U.S. Markets

Equities: The MSCI AC World Index was higher for the fourth straight week after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE Core, showed further signs of easing. Major averages in the U.S. were mixed, however. Small-caps, as tracked by the Russell 2000, led performance in the U.S. and were higher for the second straight week. Growth continued to outperform value as the Nasdaq was higher for the fourth straight week.

Fixed Income: The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Index was lower for the second straight week as longer-maturity Treasury yields increased. Treasuries and investment grade corporate bonds were the worst performing sectors for the week while floating rate bonds rallied.

Commodities/FX: The Bloomberg Commodity Index was lower for the second straight week, despite gains in energy prices. Crude oil was higher for the third staight week as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hezzbollah intensified. Corn prices plummeted after the USDA June Acreage report showed more plantings than estimated.

Key Takeaways:

  • Inflation picture starting to show signs of improving.
  • Consumer confidence deteriorates further.
  • Equities rally as growth trade continues to carry markets.
  • Bonds mixed on hawkish Fed rhetoric.
  • Commodities climb for second straight quarter on metals rally.

Theme of the Week — 2Q24 Recap – Growth Trade Continues Despite Hawkish Federal Reserve

Global equity markets were higher for the third straight quarter as inflation showed signs of easing while economic growth continued. Rate cuts by the ECB and Bank of Canada sparked a global risk-on sentiment as investors expect the Fed to be next. The Fed, however, continued to reiterate their stance of needing more confidence before cutting rates, sending bond yields higher during the quarter. The equity growth trade remained full-steam ahead despite the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and rising yields. This week, we review the 2Q24 from an economic and asset class perspective.

  • Inflation showing signs of improving: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE Core, remains above the central bank’s 2% target, but the pace of gains has fallen to the slowest annualized pace since March 2021 (+2.6%). Core CPI also showed signs of easing, increasing at the slowest pace since April 2021.
  • Diverging monetary policy paths: The ECB and Bank of Canada were the first two major central banks to cut interest rates (by 25bps) as both authorities cited progress on inflation.
  • Consumer confidence continues to deteriorate: Consumer confidence as tracked by the Conference Board continued to fall during 2Q24. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a seven-month low as Americans grew pessimistic about household finances, specifically.
  • Job gains strong, but unemployment increases: The U.S. economy continued to add jobs at a robust pace during the quarter. The three-month moving average increased to ~268k jobs (from 264k jobs in 1Q24). However, the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since January 2022 (4.0%) as more Americans entered the labor force.

Global Equities – Growth trade continues: The MSCI AC World Index was higher for the third straight quarter as growth continued to carry global equity performance.

  • Growth carries U.S. equity performance: The Russell 3000 Growth Index outperformed the Russell 3000 Value Index by ~600 bps in 2Q24. Value sectors were lower for the first time since 3Q23.
  • Emerging markets outperform developed: The MSCI Emerging Market Index outperformed the MSCI EAFE Developed Market Index by the widest margin since 1Q23. Taiwan and India equities contributed the most to the EM outperformance.

Fixed Income – Bonds mixed on hawkish Fed rhetoric: The Bloomberg Aggregate Index was relatively flat in 2Q24. However, long term Treasuries and investment grade credit declined on hawkish Fed rhetoric.

  • TIPS and floating rates lead rally:S. TIPS and floating rates led fixed income in 2Q24 on expectations for higher rates for longer.

Commodities – Metals lead commodity gains: The Bloomberg Commodity Index was higher for the second consecutive quarter.

  • Metals lead the gains: Both industrial and precious metals led the gains in 2Q24. Gold hit a record high while copper rallied on hopes for a soft landing in the U.S.
  • Natural gas prices surged: Expectations for a more active hurricane season boosted natural gas prices.

Footnotes: Data is as of June 28, 2024.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Verdence Capital Advisors.

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