WEEKLY INSIGHTS

September 14, 2026
Download PDF

Author: Megan Horneman | Chief Investment Officer

Key Takeaways:

  • Inflation has not reached Fed’s target in 66 months.
  • Liquidity is a factor in inflation problem.
  • Wages have not been keeping pace with many household necessity items.
  • Homeowners in a difficult situation to maintain their homes.
  • No one wants rate hikes, but the Fed should act this week and get tough on inflation.

Breaking Down the Inflation Environment Since Before COVID

Inflation as measured by Core PCE (YoY) and Core CPI (YoY) has been above the Fed’s target (2.0%) for the past 66 consecutive months. It is difficult to say that the wait and see approach or the approach of easing rates before inflation has securely moved to the Fed’s target is working. History shows us that inflation tends to move in waves and is rarely a one and done straight down trajectory.

We realize that the Fed cannot control some of the factors that are contributing to inflation (e.g., war and elevated oil prices, supply disruptions, surging costs for the AI buildout). However, the Fed can try to control the excess liquidiy in the system that also contributes to inflation being stubborn.

For example, the money supply is growing 5.4% (YoY), the highest pace since 2022 and roughly 70% of nominal GDP. In the most recent Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey banks reported easing lending standards because competition is so strong in the public and private market not because credit quality has improved. Again, too much money moving around the banking system can created inflationary pressures. Credit spreads are near the lowest level since prior to the Great Recession. Equity markets are hovering near record highs and corporate earnings are making record highs. All of these factors contribute to excess liquidity and if not addressed the Fed will find it very difficult to achieve its 2% inflation target. In this weekly insights, we took a look at some of the key items that are necessities for households and how much they have changed since before the COVID induced inflation era (end of 2019). In addition, it is important to compare the price increase with the rise in  average hourly earnings which has  only been 4.3% (annualized) since December 2019.

Housing :

The median price of an existing home has increased 56% since December 2019 or ~7% annually. For homeowners the cost to maintain your home has been exceeding earnings. Homeowner insurance has been rising 4.9% (annually), housing fuel is rising ~9% (annually) and electricity is up 5.5% (annually). In addition, food is up 4.6% and water services are up 4.5% (annually). Even garbage and trash collection is rising 5.3% (annually).

Owning a car:

The cost of a new or used car has not exceeded earnings since 2019 (+3.6% annually). However, similar to housing, maintaining a vehicle is a burden. Motor vehicle repairs are growing 7% annually, auto insurance is rising 6% and motor fuel has increased 5.4% annually.

Services prices matter:

Americans spend most of their money on services not goods. That includes everything from medical care, financial, legal, lawn care, getting your hair cut. Service prices are rising over 4% annually since the end of 2019 so barely keeping up with wages.

The Bottom Line:

No one wants interest rate hikes, however we see the ongoing inflationary environment a bigger threat to the economy than interest rate hikes.  We think the Fed should raise rates this week and deliver a hawkish stance on monetary policy. If they disappoint, they risk losing control of long term interest rates as investors lose confidence the Fed can control inflation for the long run.

LISTEN NOW: Markets With Megan

Your Economic and Market Detailed Recaps

  • Business optimism slips.
  • Inflation likely to force Fed to act.
  • Consumer confidence weakens.
  • Global equities decline on war and rate hike expectations.
  • Bonds slammed by inflation and rise in crude oil.
  • Geopolitical tensions send crude oil higher.

Weekly Economic Recap — Inflation Data Likely to Force the Fed to Act

Small business optimism as measured by the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell for the first time in three months in August. A weaker outlook on the economy and hiring plans led the Index lower.

Inflation as measured by the Producer Price Index rose 0.4% (MoM) in August at the headline level as energy prices continued to drive prices higher. At the core level (ex food, energy and trade), prices rose 0.3% (MoM) and are rising 4.7% on a year over year basis.

Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose in August and increased more than expected at the core level (0.3% MoM). The headline increase (+0.4% MoM) was driven by energy prices (+2.1% MoM). At the core level, shelter, airline fares and education/ communication prices led the gains.

The preliminary reading on the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index showed that confidence declined for the second consecutive month in September to a four month low. Confidence declined in both the  current conditions and future expectations components but it was concern about the future that led the weakness.

Weekly Market Recap — Global Equities Fall on War and Rate Hike Expectations

Equities:

The MSCI AC World Index saw its worst weekly decline in the past eight weeks as the war in Iran escalated and stubborn inflation is suggesting rate hikes are ahead. The developed equity markets were the worst performing region as the ECB raised interest rates. Within the U.S., rising bond yields hampered growth stocks and small and midcap stocks.

Fixed Income:

The Bloomberg Aggregate Index posted its worst one week decline in the past 17 weeks. Crude oil pushing above $100 bbl, inflation proving problematic and fear over burgeoning deficits pushed yields higher. Municipals and Treasuries led the declines but all major fixed income sectors fell for the week.

Commodities/FX:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index rallied for the second consecutive week. Crude oil led the gains as the war with Iran intensified. Gold prices were hampered by the rise in Treasury yields and likely Fed interest rate hike.


Fed rate hike outlook, inflation outlook investors


Footnotes: Data is as of August, 2026.
Data Source: FactSet Research Systems, Verdence Capital Advisors.


 

Disclaimer: © Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC

Reproduction without permission is not permitted. The indexes presented are unmanaged portfolios of specified securities and do not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. An investment’s portfolio may differ significantly from the securities in the index.  This material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA” or “we”, “our”, “us”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Alternative investments are designed only for sophisticated investors who are able to bear the risk of the loss of their entire investment. Investing in alternative investments should be viewed as illiquid and generally not readily marketable or transferable. Investors should be prepared to bear the financial risks of investing in an alternative investment for an indefinite period of time. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. All indexes are unmanaged, and you cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Sector Watch Use of this website is intended for U.S. residents only. Any recommendation, opinion or advice regarding securities or markets contained in such material does not reflect the views of Verdence Capital, and Verdence Capital does not verify any information included in such material. Verdence Capital assumes no responsibility for any fact, recommendation, opinion, or advice contained in any such research material and expressly disclaims any responsibility for any decisions or for the suitability of any security or transaction based on it. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell, or hold a security based on this research will be entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed or influenced by or attributed to Verdence Capital. It is understood that, without exception, any order based on such research that is placed for execution is and will be treated as an UNRECOMMENDED AND UNSOLICITED ORDER. Further, Verdence Capital assumes no responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any such research or for updating such research, which is subject to change without notice at any time. Verdence Capital does not provide tax, or legal advice. Under no circumstance is the information contained within this research to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any particular investment/security. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Commodity‐related products, including futures, carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity‐related products may be extremely volatile, illiquid and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions, regardless of the length of time shares are held. Data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes. Verdence Capital shall not be liable for any errors or delay in the content, or for any action taken in reliance on any content. Weekly Insights/Qtrly & Annual Outlook The indexes presented are unmanaged portfolios of specified securities and do not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. An investment’s portfolio may differ significantly from the securities in the index. Semi-Annual Chart Pack Where shown, performance information presented is that which has been calculated and presented by an unaffiliated third-party manager. We have no insight into the performance of the advisor/product/account or fund shown and do not attempt to determine whether the performance presented is accurate. Therefore, the performance could be incorrect, overstated or not reflective of actual trading of client funds. There is the potential that the performance shown is a back test and not the result of real investment advice and trading. As such, it could not be relied upon as indicative of future returns of a particular strategy. Where performance shown is that of a pooled account, limited partnership, or private equity fund, you should be aware that there is a significant lack of transparency into the operations and investment process and investment vehicles invested in. As a result, pricing and valuation of the underlying holdings which produced the stated performance could be incorrect, stale, or overstated and therefore the performance figures presented cannot be relied upon. Before investing, we encourage you to request additional information, particularly performance information, of any product that you are considering for your client. You should read, as applicable, the Prospectus, SAI, Composite Disclosure and/or performance disclosure associated with any product that you are considering for investment for your or your client’s. Products shown may have minimum account sizes or minimum investments which may preclude retail and non-high net worth investors from being able to invest in these products. You should be aware that certain LPs may be closed to new investors and therefore your clients may be prevented from investing in these products. Portfolio Implementation and Rationales The SMA Asset Allocation Models do not represent a personalized recommendation of a particular investment strategy to you or your clients. You should not buy or sell an investment without first considering whether it is appropriate for your client’s portfolio. Additionally, you should review and consider any recent market news. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Investments in growth stocks may experience price volatility due to their sensitivity to market fluctuations and dependence on future earnings expectations. Sector allocation references to market capitalization (“smid cap” or “micro caps” etc.) may be subject to special risks given their characteristic narrow markets, limited financial resources, and less liquid stocks, all of which may cause price volatility. International/global investing can involve special risks, such as political changes and currency fluctuations. These risks are heightened in emerging markets. A significant percentage of the underlying investments in aggressive asset allocation portfolio investments have a higher-than-average risk exposure. You should consider your risk tolerance of each of your clients carefully before choosing such a strategy. An investment with multiple underlying investments (which may include asset-allocation or custom blended investments) may be subject to the expenses of those underlying investments in addition to those of the investment itself. Investments may reside in the specialty category due to 1) allowable investment flexibility that precludes classification in standard asset categories and/or 2) investment concentration in a limited group of securities or industry sectors. Investments in this category may be more volatile than less flexible and/or less concentrated investments and may be appropriate as only a minor component in an investor’s overall portfolio. Investment Managers You and your clients should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of Funds discussed. This and other important information are contained in the respective Fund prospectuses and summary prospectuses, which should be read carefully before investing. Investment portfolio statistics change over time. Current performance may be lower or higher than return data quoted herein. The investment return and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate; so, an investor’s shares/units, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Verdence relies heavily on unaudited third-party data. Data sources include public data, such as mutual fund data, and non-public data, such as information provided by other investment advisors and managers of limited partnership pooled accounts. Data and/or statistics included on this Portal, including references to performance, opinions, ratings, rankings, manager statistics and demographic information, product, or strategy descriptions, either quantitative or qualitative, are based upon information reasonably available to us as of the applicable date(s) then-published. Information has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but these sources cannot be guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. All data and information produced by a third party has the potential to be incorrect, incomplete, or otherwise misleading. No implication shall be created that the information contained on the Site is correct, including as of any time subsequent to the publish date, and Verdence does not undertake an obligation to update such information at any time after such date. Verdence makes not warranty or representation of the veracity of the data and information and its use of the information should not be implied as an endorsement of any material or statements made. Data, particularly non-public data, is subject to error and where the information is not audited, the potential for error is greater. Where shown, performance information presented is that which has been calculated and presented by an unaffiliated third-party manager. We have no insight into the performance of the advisor/product/account or fund shown and do not attempt to determine whether the performance presented is accurate. Therefore, the performance could be incorrect, overstated or not reflective of actual trading of client funds. There is the potential that the performance shown is a back test and not the result of real investment advice and trading. As such, it could not be relied upon as indicative of future returns of a particular strategy. Where performance shown is that of a pooled account, limited partnership, or private equity fund, you should be aware that there is a significant lack of transparency into the operations and investment process and investment vehicles invested in. As a result, pricing and valuation of the underlying holdings which produced the stated performance could be incorrect, stale, or overstated and therefore the performance figures presented cannot be relied upon. Before investing, we encourage you to request additional information, particularly performance information, of any product that you are considering for your client. You should read, as applicable, the Prospectus, SAI, Composite Disclosure and/or performance disclosure associated with any product that you are considering for investment for your or your client’s. Certain products shown may have account minimums or minimum investment sizes that are unattainable for your clients and therefore they may not be eligible to invest in these products. Reference to registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) does not imply that the SEC has endorsed or approved the qualifications of Verdence or its respective representatives to provide any advisory services described on the Site.

Read more