WEEKLY INSIGHTS

April 22, 2024
Download PDF

Key Takeaways:

  • Increased gasoline prices cause retail sales to surge in March.
  • Housing sector under pressure amid higher mortgage rates.
  • Leading Indicators Index falls; consumers cautious of outlook.
  • Geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns lead equities lower.
  • Yields continue higher on uncertain Fed path.
  • Commodities higher, led by natural gas and gold prices.

Weekly Economic Recap — Housing Data Under Pressure

Consumers continued to spend in March as retail sales increased more than expected (0.7% vs. 0.4% est.). The increase at the headline level was attributed to a sharp rise in gas prices, which caused consumers to increase spending at gasoline stations. The largest growth at the core level (excluding gas and autos) came from online retailers.

Permits to build new homes, a proxy for future construction, fell at the fastest pace in six months in March with the largest declines in applications coming from the Northeast.

Housing starts fell at the fastest pace since April 2020 with all regions except the West declining. Single-family construction fell by 12.4% for the month, while multi-family unit construction fell by 21.7%.

Sales of existing homes fell more than expected in March and by the most since November 2022. Sales of homes fell across all regions, except the Northeast. The median price of an existing home was $393,500, up 4.8% from the year before. Inventory of homes improved slightly (to 3.2 months) but still remain well below the 20-year average (5.4).

The Leading Economic Indicators Index fell more than expected in March (-0.3% MoM) attributed to consumer sentiment, the interest rate spread, new orders and building permits.

Weekly Market Recap — Housing Data Under Pressure

Equities: The MSCI AC World Index fell for the third straight week and by the most since March 2023 due to increased geopolitical tensions and growing fears around the path of Fed monetary policy. The S&P 500 was lower for the third straight week and is now more than 5% off its 52-week high on concerns of inflationary pressures reigniting. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only major average marginally higher, posting a weekly gain for the first time in three weeks.

Fixed Income: The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Index was lower for the third straight week as Treasury yields continued to move higher amid uncertainty around the Fed’s next move. The 2YR ended the week just shy of the key 5% level. Leverage loans and floating rate instruments were the only two areas of fixed income higher.

Commodities/FX: The Bloomberg Commodity Index was higher for the fourth straight week. Natural gas prices surged on reports of colder than normal temperatures expected and smaller inventory builds in the U.S. Gold prices marked their fifth straight week of gains as geopolitical tensions cause investors to continue to pile into the safe-haven asset.

Key Takeaways:

  • Still early in 1Q24 earnings season; 14% of S&P 500 companies have reported results.
  • Financials see net interest income lower but cite increase in investment banking revenues.
  • Electric utilities expected to report the largest earnings growth of all 11 sectors.
  • Five “magnificent seven” components to be largest contributors to year-over-year earnings growth.
  • A stronger U.S. Dollar may put downward pressure on multinational firms.

Theme of the Week — Diving into 1Q24  Earnings Season

S&P 500 earnings for 1Q24 just recently kicked off with reports from the major financial firms. In this weekly, we wanted to provide an overview of what investors could expect over the next few (busy) weeks for earnings. Overall, only 14% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported 1Q24 earnings thus far. According to FactSet, companies are expected to report earnings growth of 0.5% for the quarter, which would mark the third-straight quarter of year-over-year growth. However, FactSet also believes the estimate is too low and S&P 500 earnings will ultimately come in with growth of 7% year-over-year. This is based on historical vs. expected data. The actual earnings growth rate has exceeded the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of reported quarters in 37 of the past 40 quarters.1

  • Financials kick off earnings season: Large financial institutions, (e.g., JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup) kicked off 1Q24 earnings season on Friday, April 12th. Banks are reporting lower net interest income (i.e., the difference between the bank’s interest-bearing assets and liabilities), as higher interest rates continue to push customers to higher-yielding products. Investment banking activity increased during the quarter as both Citigroup and Goldman Sachs reported growth of 30%+ during the quarter, driven by higher debt and equity issuance.
  • Utilities sector expected to drive growth: The Utilities sector is expected to lead year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500. Electric utilities are expected to be the strongest performing. Increased demand from data centers powering generative AI technology is the leading cause of this, with nine of the 10 top companies stating data centers for AI technology were a main source of customer growth.2 If these companies were to be excluded from the Utilities sector, the earnings growth rate would fall to 1.3% YoY (vs. 22% YoY).
  • Technology companies still getting AI related boost: The “Magnificent Seven” companies are expected to lead year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 Index. In fact, five of the “magnificent seven” companies (NVIDIA, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft) are expected to be the top-five contributors to the year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500. If these companies were excluded, S&P 500 earnings would report a year-over-year earnings decline of -6.0% (vs. +0.5% estimate).1 Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet are all scheduled to report 1Q24 earnings results this week.
  • Strong U.S. Dollar may affect multinational firms: The U.S. Dollar Index climbed ~2% during the first quarter (compared to 1Q23) which is expected to negatively impact multinational companies’ earnings. A stronger U.S. Dollar not only makes U.S. companies less competitive internationally but is a drag on earnings when converted back into the U.S. Dollars.

The Bottom Line

Earnings typically come in 3-5% better than the estimate at the start of the reporting season and we expect this to continue. The challenge to S&P 500 returns in this earnings season will be that companies have to produce earnings and outlooks that support the elevated multiples. This may be challenging with a Fed that is unlikly to cut interest rates in the time frame that most had expected, inflation remains stubborn and the economic outlook is highly uncertain.

Disclaimer: © 2024 Authored by Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer, Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC

Reproduction without permission is not permitted. The indexes presented are unmanaged portfolios of specified securities and do not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. An investment’s portfolio may differ significantly from the securities in the index.  This material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA” or “we”, “our”, “us”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Alternative investments are designed only for sophisticated investors who are able to bear the risk of the loss of their entire investment. Investing in alternative investments should be viewed as illiquid and generally not readily marketable or transferable. Investors should be prepared to bear the financial risks of investing in an alternative investment for an indefinite period of time. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. All indexes are unmanaged, and you cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Sector Watch Use of this website is intended for U.S. residents only. Any recommendation, opinion or advice regarding securities or markets contained in such material does not reflect the views of Verdence Capital, and Verdence Capital does not verify any information included in such material. Verdence Capital assumes no responsibility for any fact, recommendation, opinion, or advice contained in any such research material and expressly disclaims any responsibility for any decisions or for the suitability of any security or transaction based on it. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell, or hold a security based on this research will be entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed or influenced by or attributed to Verdence Capital. It is understood that, without exception, any order based on such research that is placed for execution is and will be treated as an UNRECOMMENDED AND UNSOLICITED ORDER. Further, Verdence Capital assumes no responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any such research or for updating such research, which is subject to change without notice at any time. Verdence Capital does not provide tax, or legal advice. Under no circumstance is the information contained within this research to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any particular investment/security. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Commodity‐related products, including futures, carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity‐related products may be extremely volatile, illiquid and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions, regardless of the length of time shares are held. Data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes. Verdence Capital shall not be liable for any errors or delay in the content, or for any action taken in reliance on any content. Weekly Insights/Qtrly & Annual Outlook The indexes presented are unmanaged portfolios of specified securities and do not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. An investment’s portfolio may differ significantly from the securities in the index. Semi-Annual Chart Pack Where shown, performance information presented is that which has been calculated and presented by an unaffiliated third-party manager. We have no insight into the performance of the advisor/product/account or fund shown and do not attempt to determine whether the performance presented is accurate. Therefore, the performance could be incorrect, overstated or not reflective of actual trading of client funds. There is the potential that the performance shown is a back test and not the result of real investment advice and trading. As such, it could not be relied upon as indicative of future returns of a particular strategy. Where performance shown is that of a pooled account, limited partnership, or private equity fund, you should be aware that there is a significant lack of transparency into the operations and investment process and investment vehicles invested in. As a result, pricing and valuation of the underlying holdings which produced the stated performance could be incorrect, stale, or overstated and therefore the performance figures presented cannot be relied upon. Before investing, we encourage you to request additional information, particularly performance information, of any product that you are considering for your client. You should read, as applicable, the Prospectus, SAI, Composite Disclosure and/or performance disclosure associated with any product that you are considering for investment for your or your client’s. Products shown may have minimum account sizes or minimum investments which may preclude retail and non-high net worth investors from being able to invest in these products. You should be aware that certain LPs may be closed to new investors and therefore your clients may be prevented from investing in these products. Portfolio Implementation and Rationales The SMA Asset Allocation Models do not represent a personalized recommendation of a particular investment strategy to you or your clients. You should not buy or sell an investment without first considering whether it is appropriate for your client’s portfolio. Additionally, you should review and consider any recent market news. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Investments in growth stocks may experience price volatility due to their sensitivity to market fluctuations and dependence on future earnings expectations. Sector allocation references to market capitalization (“smid cap” or “micro caps” etc.) may be subject to special risks given their characteristic narrow markets, limited financial resources, and less liquid stocks, all of which may cause price volatility. International/global investing can involve special risks, such as political changes and currency fluctuations. These risks are heightened in emerging markets. A significant percentage of the underlying investments in aggressive asset allocation portfolio investments have a higher-than-average risk exposure. You should consider your risk tolerance of each of your clients carefully before choosing such a strategy. An investment with multiple underlying investments (which may include asset-allocation or custom blended investments) may be subject to the expenses of those underlying investments in addition to those of the investment itself. Investments may reside in the specialty category due to 1) allowable investment flexibility that precludes classification in standard asset categories and/or 2) investment concentration in a limited group of securities or industry sectors. Investments in this category may be more volatile than less flexible and/or less concentrated investments and may be appropriate as only a minor component in an investor’s overall portfolio. Investment Managers You and your clients should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of Funds discussed. This and other important information are contained in the respective Fund prospectuses and summary prospectuses, which should be read carefully before investing. Investment portfolio statistics change over time. Current performance may be lower or higher than return data quoted herein. The investment return and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate; so, an investor’s shares/units, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Verdence relies heavily on unaudited third-party data. Data sources include public data, such as mutual fund data, and non-public data, such as information provided by other investment advisors and managers of limited partnership pooled accounts. Data and/or statistics included on this Portal, including references to performance, opinions, ratings, rankings, manager statistics and demographic information, product, or strategy descriptions, either quantitative or qualitative, are based upon information reasonably available to us as of the applicable date(s) then-published. Information has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but these sources cannot be guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. All data and information produced by a third party has the potential to be incorrect, incomplete, or otherwise misleading. No implication shall be created that the information contained on the Site is correct, including as of any time subsequent to the publish date, and Verdence does not undertake an obligation to update such information at any time after such date. Verdence makes not warranty or representation of the veracity of the data and information and its use of the information should not be implied as an endorsement of any material or statements made. Data, particularly non-public data, is subject to error and where the information is not audited, the potential for error is greater. Where shown, performance information presented is that which has been calculated and presented by an unaffiliated third-party manager. We have no insight into the performance of the advisor/product/account or fund shown and do not attempt to determine whether the performance presented is accurate. Therefore, the performance could be incorrect, overstated or not reflective of actual trading of client funds. There is the potential that the performance shown is a back test and not the result of real investment advice and trading. As such, it could not be relied upon as indicative of future returns of a particular strategy. Where performance shown is that of a pooled account, limited partnership, or private equity fund, you should be aware that there is a significant lack of transparency into the operations and investment process and investment vehicles invested in. As a result, pricing and valuation of the underlying holdings which produced the stated performance could be incorrect, stale, or overstated and therefore the performance figures presented cannot be relied upon. Before investing, we encourage you to request additional information, particularly performance information, of any product that you are considering for your client. You should read, as applicable, the Prospectus, SAI, Composite Disclosure and/or performance disclosure associated with any product that you are considering for investment for your or your client’s. Certain products shown may have account minimums or minimum investment sizes that are unattainable for your clients and therefore they may not be eligible to invest in these products. Reference to registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) does not imply that the SEC has endorsed or approved the qualifications of Verdence or its respective representatives to provide any advisory services described on the Site.

Read more