WEEKLY INSIGHTS

September 2, 2025
Download PDF

Key Takeaways:

  • Fed tone turns dovish at Jackson Hole Symposium.
  • Inflation continues to move further above Fed’s 2% target.
  • Global equities post longest winning streak since mid-2024.
  • Treasury yields fall on expectations for Fed rate cuts.
  • Commodities performance muted; coffee surges but energy declines.

August 2025 Market Recap – Strong End to Summer for Investors

August was a stellar month for investors as all asset classes rose and volatility (as measured by the VIX Index) dropped for the fourth consecutive month. While economic data was not something for investors to cheer about, the Fed’s insinuation that rate cuts are ahead supported equities, bonds and commodities.   Equities defied the seasonal weakness typically seen in August as several equity indices hit fresh record highs (e.g., S&P 500, Nasdaq, FTSE 100). Bonds priced in a Fed rate cut with the two year Treasury yield dropping near a year to date low. Commodities also rallied on outperformance from softs. In this Weekly Insights, we give an August 2025 Market recap from an economic and asset class perspective.

  • Fed Tone Turns Dovish: During his Jackson Hole Symposium speech, Fed chairman Powell stated, “…the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting [the committee’s] policy stance.” Investors took this as a signal of lower interest rates in September.
  • Core Inflation Moving Higher: The core inflation readings (i.e., Core CPI and Core PCE) have both been moving away from the Fed’s 2% target. Both readings are now sitting at their highest levels since February (3.1% and 2.9%, respectively).
  • Consumers Remain Resilient: Consumer spending remained resilient during the month supported by sales promotions.
  • Mixed Housing Data: Building permits, a proxy for future home construction, decreased to the lowest annualized rate since 2020. However, construction of new homes increased to the highest level in five months.

Global Equities – Equities rally despite negative seasonality: The MSCI AC World Index rose for the fifth straight month in August, the longest winning streak since mid-2024.

  • S. small caps drive performance: Small-caps as tracked by the Russell 2000 outperformed their large cap (S&P 500) peers by the most since June 2024. The outperformance came as optimism increased for lower interest rates, which are supportive of smaller companies.
  • Developed markets outperform: The MSCI EAFE (developed markets) outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index amid optimism for Fed rate cuts.

Fixed Income – Yields sharply lower: The Bloomberg Aggregate Index was higher as Treasury yields fell on expectations for Fed rate cuts.

  • All fixed income sectors higher: All sectors of fixed income were higher in August. Outperformance came from U.S. TIPS as investors repriced inflation expectations.

Commodities – Mixed bag of performance: The Bloomberg Commodity Index was marginally higher in August as gains in softs outweighed the drop in energy.

  • Softs lead gains: The Bloomberg Softs subindex was higher by the most since June 2016. Coffee rose the most since November 2024 on tighter supplies out of Brazil.
  • Energy prices drop. The Bloomberg Energy subindex fell for the second month this year. Mild weather and the end of the summer driving season drove demand lower.
LISTEN NOW: Markets With Megan

Your Economic and Market Detailed Recaps

  • Consumer confidence falls on labor market concerns.
  • Consumer spending resiliency supports economic growth.
  • Fed’s preferred inflation gauge moves further from target.
  • Global equities lower for first time in four weeks.
  • Short-term yields fall amid Fed Governor uncertainty.
  • Commodities higher driven by natural gas and gold.

Weekly Economic Recap — U.S. Economy Expands at Faster Pace; Inflation Still a Concern

Sales of new homes in the U.S. increased more than expected in July and June data was revised higher. The upside surprise was driven by easing prices and heavy incentives to entice prospective buyers. The median sales price of a new home fell 6% YoY in July to $403.8K, the lowest month of July since 2021.

The rise in home prices slowed for the fifth straight month in June, according to the S&P Cotality Index. The Index increased 1.9% from a year ago, the smallest gain since July 2023. New York, Chicago and Minneapolis were the only cities to see prices rise in June. Phoenix, San Francisco and Miami saw the biggest decline in home prices for the month.

Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board fell in August amid concerns around jobs and income. The share of consumers that said jobs were hard to get increased to the highest level since 2021. The present conditions gauge decreased to the lowest level since April.

The U.S. economy grew at a faster than expected pace in 2Q25 (3.3% vs. 3.1%). Consumer spending led the upward revision (+1.6% QoQ vs. +1.4% in first reading). Final sales to private domestic purchasers, a closely watched metric by the Fed as an indication of demand/sales within the U.S., increased more than expected. Net exports (i.e., the difference between exports and imports) contributed ~5% to the Q2 total.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE Core, rose 2.9% YoY, the highest annual rate since February. The headline reading (including all components) increased 2.6% YoY and was driven by stubborn service prices (+3.6% YoY).

Weekly Market Recap — Global Equities Fall Driven by Uncertainty in the U.S.

Equities:

The MSCI AC World Index was lower for the first time in four weeks as investors took profits after a strong earnings season. In addition, investors grew nerrvous about Trump’s attempts  to remove a Fed Governor (Lisa Cook). The major U.S. averages finished the week modestly lower with the exception of the small-cap Russell 2000. Small-caps were higher for the fourth straight week and outperformed the S&P 500 for the third consecutive week.

Fixed Income:

The Bloomberg Aggregate Index was higher as the Treasury yield curve steepened (short and intermediate term yields fell more than long term yields) after Trump’s announcement to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. All sectors of fixed income finished in positive territory, with the exception of investment grade corporate bonds.

Commodities/FX:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was higher for the second consecutive week. Natural gas prices were higher for the first time in six weeks on tighter U.S. supplies and a mixed weather forecast. Gold prices were higher for the fourth time in five weeks amid increased expectations for a Fed rate cut.

WATCH NOW: Alternate View Podcast


August 2025 market recap


Data is as of August 2025.
Data Source: FactSet Research Systems, Verdence Capital Advisors.

Disclaimer: © Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC

Reproduction without permission is not permitted. The indexes presented are unmanaged portfolios of specified securities and do not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. An investment’s portfolio may differ significantly from the securities in the index.  This material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA” or “we”, “our”, “us”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Alternative investments are designed only for sophisticated investors who are able to bear the risk of the loss of their entire investment. Investing in alternative investments should be viewed as illiquid and generally not readily marketable or transferable. Investors should be prepared to bear the financial risks of investing in an alternative investment for an indefinite period of time. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. All indexes are unmanaged, and you cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Sector Watch Use of this website is intended for U.S. residents only. Any recommendation, opinion or advice regarding securities or markets contained in such material does not reflect the views of Verdence Capital, and Verdence Capital does not verify any information included in such material. Verdence Capital assumes no responsibility for any fact, recommendation, opinion, or advice contained in any such research material and expressly disclaims any responsibility for any decisions or for the suitability of any security or transaction based on it. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell, or hold a security based on this research will be entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed or influenced by or attributed to Verdence Capital. It is understood that, without exception, any order based on such research that is placed for execution is and will be treated as an UNRECOMMENDED AND UNSOLICITED ORDER. Further, Verdence Capital assumes no responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any such research or for updating such research, which is subject to change without notice at any time. Verdence Capital does not provide tax, or legal advice. Under no circumstance is the information contained within this research to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any particular investment/security. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Commodity‐related products, including futures, carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity‐related products may be extremely volatile, illiquid and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions, regardless of the length of time shares are held. Data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes. Verdence Capital shall not be liable for any errors or delay in the content, or for any action taken in reliance on any content. Weekly Insights/Qtrly & Annual Outlook The indexes presented are unmanaged portfolios of specified securities and do not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. An investment’s portfolio may differ significantly from the securities in the index. Semi-Annual Chart Pack Where shown, performance information presented is that which has been calculated and presented by an unaffiliated third-party manager. We have no insight into the performance of the advisor/product/account or fund shown and do not attempt to determine whether the performance presented is accurate. Therefore, the performance could be incorrect, overstated or not reflective of actual trading of client funds. There is the potential that the performance shown is a back test and not the result of real investment advice and trading. As such, it could not be relied upon as indicative of future returns of a particular strategy. Where performance shown is that of a pooled account, limited partnership, or private equity fund, you should be aware that there is a significant lack of transparency into the operations and investment process and investment vehicles invested in. As a result, pricing and valuation of the underlying holdings which produced the stated performance could be incorrect, stale, or overstated and therefore the performance figures presented cannot be relied upon. Before investing, we encourage you to request additional information, particularly performance information, of any product that you are considering for your client. You should read, as applicable, the Prospectus, SAI, Composite Disclosure and/or performance disclosure associated with any product that you are considering for investment for your or your client’s. Products shown may have minimum account sizes or minimum investments which may preclude retail and non-high net worth investors from being able to invest in these products. You should be aware that certain LPs may be closed to new investors and therefore your clients may be prevented from investing in these products. Portfolio Implementation and Rationales The SMA Asset Allocation Models do not represent a personalized recommendation of a particular investment strategy to you or your clients. You should not buy or sell an investment without first considering whether it is appropriate for your client’s portfolio. Additionally, you should review and consider any recent market news. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Investments in growth stocks may experience price volatility due to their sensitivity to market fluctuations and dependence on future earnings expectations. Sector allocation references to market capitalization (“smid cap” or “micro caps” etc.) may be subject to special risks given their characteristic narrow markets, limited financial resources, and less liquid stocks, all of which may cause price volatility. International/global investing can involve special risks, such as political changes and currency fluctuations. These risks are heightened in emerging markets. A significant percentage of the underlying investments in aggressive asset allocation portfolio investments have a higher-than-average risk exposure. You should consider your risk tolerance of each of your clients carefully before choosing such a strategy. An investment with multiple underlying investments (which may include asset-allocation or custom blended investments) may be subject to the expenses of those underlying investments in addition to those of the investment itself. Investments may reside in the specialty category due to 1) allowable investment flexibility that precludes classification in standard asset categories and/or 2) investment concentration in a limited group of securities or industry sectors. Investments in this category may be more volatile than less flexible and/or less concentrated investments and may be appropriate as only a minor component in an investor’s overall portfolio. Investment Managers You and your clients should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of Funds discussed. This and other important information are contained in the respective Fund prospectuses and summary prospectuses, which should be read carefully before investing. Investment portfolio statistics change over time. Current performance may be lower or higher than return data quoted herein. The investment return and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate; so, an investor’s shares/units, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Verdence relies heavily on unaudited third-party data. Data sources include public data, such as mutual fund data, and non-public data, such as information provided by other investment advisors and managers of limited partnership pooled accounts. Data and/or statistics included on this Portal, including references to performance, opinions, ratings, rankings, manager statistics and demographic information, product, or strategy descriptions, either quantitative or qualitative, are based upon information reasonably available to us as of the applicable date(s) then-published. Information has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but these sources cannot be guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. All data and information produced by a third party has the potential to be incorrect, incomplete, or otherwise misleading. No implication shall be created that the information contained on the Site is correct, including as of any time subsequent to the publish date, and Verdence does not undertake an obligation to update such information at any time after such date. Verdence makes not warranty or representation of the veracity of the data and information and its use of the information should not be implied as an endorsement of any material or statements made. Data, particularly non-public data, is subject to error and where the information is not audited, the potential for error is greater. Where shown, performance information presented is that which has been calculated and presented by an unaffiliated third-party manager. We have no insight into the performance of the advisor/product/account or fund shown and do not attempt to determine whether the performance presented is accurate. Therefore, the performance could be incorrect, overstated or not reflective of actual trading of client funds. There is the potential that the performance shown is a back test and not the result of real investment advice and trading. As such, it could not be relied upon as indicative of future returns of a particular strategy. Where performance shown is that of a pooled account, limited partnership, or private equity fund, you should be aware that there is a significant lack of transparency into the operations and investment process and investment vehicles invested in. As a result, pricing and valuation of the underlying holdings which produced the stated performance could be incorrect, stale, or overstated and therefore the performance figures presented cannot be relied upon. Before investing, we encourage you to request additional information, particularly performance information, of any product that you are considering for your client. You should read, as applicable, the Prospectus, SAI, Composite Disclosure and/or performance disclosure associated with any product that you are considering for investment for your or your client’s. Certain products shown may have account minimums or minimum investment sizes that are unattainable for your clients and therefore they may not be eligible to invest in these products. Reference to registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) does not imply that the SEC has endorsed or approved the qualifications of Verdence or its respective representatives to provide any advisory services described on the Site.

Read more