WEEKLY INSIGHTS

July 7, 2026
Download PDF

Author: Megan Horneman | Chief Investment Officer

Key Takeaways:

  • Global equities deliver robust returns in 2Q26.
  • U.S. economy continues to benefit from capex and consumer.
  • U.S. equity rally broadens beyond large caps.
  • Municipals see strong inflows as reinvestment season is strong.
  • Commodities plummet on hopes for end to Middle East conflict.

2Q26 Market Review – Markets Shrug Off Risks and Post Record Highs

Equity investors were handed some of the best quarterly gains since 2020 in 2Q26, with the majority of U.S. indices making record highs. The rally broadened domestically and globally with the Russell 2000, Nikkei 225, Korea’s Kospi and the Taiwan TAIEX hitting a record high. Enthusiasm over AI overshadowed the conflict with Iran, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and inflation pressures that pushed central banks to be more hawkish. In this weekly insights we offer a review of 2Q26 from an economic and market perspective.

  • Fed Chair shakes this up: Kevin Warsh left rates unchanged at his first meeting but leaned hawkish. He is also weighing changes to the committee’s transparency practices, the data it monitors, and the future of the Fed’s outsized balance sheet.
  • Inflation keeps rising: Energy costs drove headline inflation (CPI YoY) to the highest in three years (+4.2%). In addition, core inflation (PCE Core YoY) jumped to the highest level since 2023 (+3.4%) led by service costs.
  • Capex spend continues: AI spending helped manufacturing per the ISM Manufacturing Index to rise to the highest since 2022. Core capital goods orders are rising at the fastest year over year pace since 2022 (10.4%).
  • Consumer mixed: Consumer confidence according to the University of Michigan hit a record low in 2Q26. However, spending was solid with core retail sales rising at the fastest pace since 2023 (6.3% YoY).
  • Labor market stable: The U.S. unemployment rate fell to a one year low (4.2%) and job openings accelerated to the highest in 26 months in May.

Equities:  The MSCI AC World Index posted its sixth best quarterly return (+14.9%) since inception (1998) led by gains in the emerging markets and a broadening in the U.S. rally.

  • AI wins out! The global indices that have stocks tied to chips or AI rallied the most in 2Q26. Korea, (+85%) and Taiwan led the global equity rally.
  • S. broadens: Small caps (+22%) outperformed large caps (+15%) by the most since 1Q21.

Fixed Income: The Bloomberg Aggregate Index rebounded in 2Q26 (+0.7%) led by emerging markets and municipal bonds.

  • Emerging market lead: EM bonds rallied the most in seven quarters (+3.4%) as investors looked outside the U.S. for yield.
  • Municipals stand out: Municipal bonds (+2.5%) outperformed taxable bonds on reinvestment demand and attractive yields.

Commodities: The Bloomberg Commodity Index posted its worst quarter (-8.1%) since 1Q20 led by energy and precious metals.

  • Oil in bear market: Oil prices fell as the Strait of Hormuz started to open. Crude oil posted its worst quarter (-31.5%) since 1Q20.
  • Metals diverge: Precious metals fell (-14.9%) as safe haven demand weakened. Industrial metals rose (+1.9%) on hopes for an end to the Middle East  conflict.
LISTEN NOW: Markets With Megan

Your Economic and Market Detailed Recaps

  • Home prices falling month over month.
  • Has consumer confidence troughed?
  • Job growth disappoints but rate dips lower.
  • Global equities rally on hopes for peace deal.
  • Bonds fall as flight to safety fades.
  • Commodities driven lower by energy.

Weekly Economic Recap — Unemployment rate dips lower

Home prices as measured by the S&P Cotality Index rose more than expected on a year over year basis (+1.1% vs. +0.9% est.) in April. However, for the month, prices fell (-0.04% MoM) led by weakness in Phoenix, Las Vegas and Seattle. Of the 20 cities that the Index monitors, 12 of the cities saw price declines while Chicago, Washington and New York saw price gains.

Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board rose modestly in June. Confidence on the present situation declined but consumers grew more confident on future expectations which rose to the highest level this year.

Jobs openings according to the JOLTS report showed that job openings rose to a two year high in May (7.59 million). As a result, the number of job openings compared to those unemployed rose for the second consesutive month. Leisure and hospitality led the gains in job openings.

The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected (+57K vs. +113K est.) in June. However the unemployment rate dropped for the first time in four months (to 4.2%) as household employment dropped by 507K. Leisure and hospitality led the job gains.

Manufacturing as measured by the ISM Manufacturing Index dipped modestly in June (53.3 vs 54.0 in May). The decline was led by prices paid which fell to the lowest level in four months. In addition, supplier delivery time, export orders and production also declined.

Weekly Market Recap — Global equities rise on hopes for a peace deal

Equities:

The MSCI AC World Index rallied by the most in eight weeks given renewed optimism about an end to the U.S./Iran turmoil. From a global perspective developed international equities outperformed U.S. equities on hopes for geopolitical relief. Within the U.S. large caps outperformed small caps and growth outperformed value.

Fixed Income:

The Bloomberg Aggregate Index fell for the first time in four weeks led by weakness in Treasuries. High yield bonds rallied along with the strength in equities.

Commodities/FX:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index rallied for the first time in seven weeks as crude oil continues to trend lower on hopes for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. Gold prices rebounded after a soft U.S. jobs report pushed off expectations for rate hikes.

WATCH NOW: Alternate View Podcast


Data is as of June 2026.
Data Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Verdence Capital Advisors.

Disclaimer: © Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC

Reproduction without permission is not permitted. The indexes presented are unmanaged portfolios of specified securities and do not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. An investment’s portfolio may differ significantly from the securities in the index.  This material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA” or “we”, “our”, “us”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Alternative investments are designed only for sophisticated investors who are able to bear the risk of the loss of their entire investment. Investing in alternative investments should be viewed as illiquid and generally not readily marketable or transferable. Investors should be prepared to bear the financial risks of investing in an alternative investment for an indefinite period of time. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. All indexes are unmanaged, and you cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Sector Watch Use of this website is intended for U.S. residents only. Any recommendation, opinion or advice regarding securities or markets contained in such material does not reflect the views of Verdence Capital, and Verdence Capital does not verify any information included in such material. Verdence Capital assumes no responsibility for any fact, recommendation, opinion, or advice contained in any such research material and expressly disclaims any responsibility for any decisions or for the suitability of any security or transaction based on it. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell, or hold a security based on this research will be entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed or influenced by or attributed to Verdence Capital. It is understood that, without exception, any order based on such research that is placed for execution is and will be treated as an UNRECOMMENDED AND UNSOLICITED ORDER. Further, Verdence Capital assumes no responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any such research or for updating such research, which is subject to change without notice at any time. Verdence Capital does not provide tax, or legal advice. Under no circumstance is the information contained within this research to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any particular investment/security. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Commodity‐related products, including futures, carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity‐related products may be extremely volatile, illiquid and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions, regardless of the length of time shares are held. Data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes. Verdence Capital shall not be liable for any errors or delay in the content, or for any action taken in reliance on any content. Weekly Insights/Qtrly & Annual Outlook The indexes presented are unmanaged portfolios of specified securities and do not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. An investment’s portfolio may differ significantly from the securities in the index. Semi-Annual Chart Pack Where shown, performance information presented is that which has been calculated and presented by an unaffiliated third-party manager. We have no insight into the performance of the advisor/product/account or fund shown and do not attempt to determine whether the performance presented is accurate. Therefore, the performance could be incorrect, overstated or not reflective of actual trading of client funds. There is the potential that the performance shown is a back test and not the result of real investment advice and trading. As such, it could not be relied upon as indicative of future returns of a particular strategy. Where performance shown is that of a pooled account, limited partnership, or private equity fund, you should be aware that there is a significant lack of transparency into the operations and investment process and investment vehicles invested in. As a result, pricing and valuation of the underlying holdings which produced the stated performance could be incorrect, stale, or overstated and therefore the performance figures presented cannot be relied upon. Before investing, we encourage you to request additional information, particularly performance information, of any product that you are considering for your client. You should read, as applicable, the Prospectus, SAI, Composite Disclosure and/or performance disclosure associated with any product that you are considering for investment for your or your client’s. Products shown may have minimum account sizes or minimum investments which may preclude retail and non-high net worth investors from being able to invest in these products. You should be aware that certain LPs may be closed to new investors and therefore your clients may be prevented from investing in these products. Portfolio Implementation and Rationales The SMA Asset Allocation Models do not represent a personalized recommendation of a particular investment strategy to you or your clients. You should not buy or sell an investment without first considering whether it is appropriate for your client’s portfolio. Additionally, you should review and consider any recent market news. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Investments in growth stocks may experience price volatility due to their sensitivity to market fluctuations and dependence on future earnings expectations. Sector allocation references to market capitalization (“smid cap” or “micro caps” etc.) may be subject to special risks given their characteristic narrow markets, limited financial resources, and less liquid stocks, all of which may cause price volatility. International/global investing can involve special risks, such as political changes and currency fluctuations. These risks are heightened in emerging markets. A significant percentage of the underlying investments in aggressive asset allocation portfolio investments have a higher-than-average risk exposure. You should consider your risk tolerance of each of your clients carefully before choosing such a strategy. An investment with multiple underlying investments (which may include asset-allocation or custom blended investments) may be subject to the expenses of those underlying investments in addition to those of the investment itself. Investments may reside in the specialty category due to 1) allowable investment flexibility that precludes classification in standard asset categories and/or 2) investment concentration in a limited group of securities or industry sectors. Investments in this category may be more volatile than less flexible and/or less concentrated investments and may be appropriate as only a minor component in an investor’s overall portfolio. Investment Managers You and your clients should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of Funds discussed. This and other important information are contained in the respective Fund prospectuses and summary prospectuses, which should be read carefully before investing. Investment portfolio statistics change over time. Current performance may be lower or higher than return data quoted herein. The investment return and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate; so, an investor’s shares/units, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Verdence relies heavily on unaudited third-party data. Data sources include public data, such as mutual fund data, and non-public data, such as information provided by other investment advisors and managers of limited partnership pooled accounts. Data and/or statistics included on this Portal, including references to performance, opinions, ratings, rankings, manager statistics and demographic information, product, or strategy descriptions, either quantitative or qualitative, are based upon information reasonably available to us as of the applicable date(s) then-published. Information has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but these sources cannot be guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. All data and information produced by a third party has the potential to be incorrect, incomplete, or otherwise misleading. No implication shall be created that the information contained on the Site is correct, including as of any time subsequent to the publish date, and Verdence does not undertake an obligation to update such information at any time after such date. Verdence makes not warranty or representation of the veracity of the data and information and its use of the information should not be implied as an endorsement of any material or statements made. Data, particularly non-public data, is subject to error and where the information is not audited, the potential for error is greater. Where shown, performance information presented is that which has been calculated and presented by an unaffiliated third-party manager. We have no insight into the performance of the advisor/product/account or fund shown and do not attempt to determine whether the performance presented is accurate. Therefore, the performance could be incorrect, overstated or not reflective of actual trading of client funds. There is the potential that the performance shown is a back test and not the result of real investment advice and trading. As such, it could not be relied upon as indicative of future returns of a particular strategy. Where performance shown is that of a pooled account, limited partnership, or private equity fund, you should be aware that there is a significant lack of transparency into the operations and investment process and investment vehicles invested in. As a result, pricing and valuation of the underlying holdings which produced the stated performance could be incorrect, stale, or overstated and therefore the performance figures presented cannot be relied upon. Before investing, we encourage you to request additional information, particularly performance information, of any product that you are considering for your client. You should read, as applicable, the Prospectus, SAI, Composite Disclosure and/or performance disclosure associated with any product that you are considering for investment for your or your client’s. Certain products shown may have account minimums or minimum investment sizes that are unattainable for your clients and therefore they may not be eligible to invest in these products. Reference to registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) does not imply that the SEC has endorsed or approved the qualifications of Verdence or its respective representatives to provide any advisory services described on the Site.

Read more