WEEKLY INSIGHTS

November 4, 2024
Download PDF

Key Takeaways:

  • Consumer spending drives U.S. economic growth
  • U.S. budget deficit grew to third largest on record; interest on debt surpasses $1 trillion.
  • Global equities lower on expectations for less aggressive rate cuts in the future.
  • Four “Magnificent 7” constituents lower and weigh on market performance.
  • Treasury yields climb to near three-month high..

October Recap – A Disappointing Month for all Major Asset Classes

Volatility surged and investors in all major asset classes were disappointed in October. A mixed start to 3Q24 earnings season, sticky inflation data, a weak labor market report and uncertainty around the U.S. Presidential election led markets lower. Global equities as measured by the MSCI AC World Index were lower for the first time in six months. In addition, U.S. Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in three months as investors digested Fed commentary that suggests the pace of rate hikes may not be as aggressive as previously anticipated. In this weekly Insights, we provide a recap of October from an economic and asset class perspective.

  • Consumer spending drives economic growth: The U.S. economy grew more than expected in 3Q24, supported by robust consumer spending, which increased by the most since early 2023.
  • Inflation remains sticky: Headline inflation, as tracked by the Consumer Price Index, increased slightly more than expected last month. The three-month annualized rate of CPI Core inflation increased by the most since May. In addition, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, increased at the fastest monthly pace since April.
  • Third-largest fiscal budget deficit on record: The U.S. budget deficit grew to $1.833 trillion for FY’24. In addition, the interest on federal debt exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in history.
  • Job growth slows driven by weather related disruptions: The U.S. economy added 12K jobs in October due to weather-related disruptions in the Southeast and a strike at Boeing.

Global Equities – Global equites falter: The MSCI AC World Index was lower for the first time in six months as investors weighed economic data that suggest rate cuts may not be as aggressive as expected.

  • Developed markets lag emerging market counterparts: The MSCI EAFE (Developed Market) Index underperformed its emerging market counterpart by ~100bps. This is the second straight month emerging markets have outperformed developed markets.
  • US equities lower: The S&P 500 Index was lower for the first time in six months. Four of the “Magnificent 7” companies were lower, including Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta. Shares of Nvidia, however, posted their best monthly return since June.

Fixed Income – Bond yields surge: The Bloomberg Aggregate Index was lower for the first time in six months as Treasury yields jumped to near three-month highs.

  • A broad sell-off: The safest areas of fixed income weighed on performance for the asset class. Investment grade, international and mortgage-backed bonds led the weakness. The only sectors to post modest gains were floating rate notes and leveraged loans.

Commodities: The Bloomberg Commodity Index was lower for the first time in three months.

  • Copper lower on China stimulus: Copper prices were lower for the first time in three months amid unclear China stimulus measures and production constraints in the country tightened global supply.

Your Economic and Market Detailed Recaps

  • Consumer confidence surprisingly jumps.
  • Core inflation is proving sticky.
  • U.S. posts smallest number of job gains since Dec. ’20.
  • Mega-Cap tech earnings disappoint; Tech underperforms.
  • Yields continue higher after sticky inflation report.
  • Crude oil lower after Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran.

Weekly Economic Recap — Inflation Progress Stalling; Job Growth Slows Amid Weather Disturbances

Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board surprisingly jumped in October. It was the largest monthly increase since March 2021. The increase was led by an improvement in the labor market as those viewing jobs plentiful compared to those viewing jobs hard to get rose to a four month high.

Home prices as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Index rose for the 19th consecutive month in August. On a year over year basis, the gains were robust but slowed from the prior month. The gains were led by homes in Seattle, Chicago and Washington.

Job openings, as tracked by the JOLTS report, fell to the lowest level since early 2021, and last month’s reading was revised lower. Layoffs increased to the highest level since January 2023 while the quits rate (i.e., those leaving jobs voluntarily) was steady at 1.9%.

The US economy expanded at a faster pace than expected in 3Q24 (2.8% vs. 2.7% est.). Consumer spending, the largest component of GDP, remained robust, increasing at the fastest pace since early 2023 (3.7% QoQ). Federal spending increased by the most since early 2021 with spending on National defense increasing 14.9% QoQ, the most since 2003.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE Core, remained relatively unchanged at 2.7% year-over- year and was slightly higher than forecast (2.6%). On a monthly basis, the increase in core PCE was the fastest since April. The
increase was driven by services prices. Air transportation increased at the fastest monthly pace since April 2022 (2.7%).

The U.S. economy posted the smallest number of job gains since December 2020 as the October labor market was impacted by the hurricanes in the Southeast. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%.

Weekly Market Recap — Mega-Cap Tech Earnings Dissapoint; Yields Continue Higher

Equities: The MSCI AC World Index was lower for the second straight week as investors digested key growth and inflation data out of the U.S. In addition, mega-cap tech earnings disappointed. Most of the major averages in the U.S. were lower for the week led by large cap growth and technology. However, small cap stocks were modestly higher.

Fixed Income: The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Index was lower for the second consecutive week. Treasury yields continued higher as investors weighed the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path amid sticky inflation (core PCE) and a weak labor report. Floating rate bonds and leveraged loans were the only sectors moving higher.

Commodities/FX: The Bloomberg Commodity Index was lower for the third time in four weeks. Crude oil prices were lower after Israel launched a retaliatory attack on Iran but spared their oil facilities. Gold prices ended
the week slighly lower for the first time in four weeks.


Job Growth levels and asset class disappointment


Data is as of October 2024.
Source: FactSet Research Systems, Verdence Capital Advisors

Disclaimer: © Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC

Reproduction without permission is not permitted. The indexes presented are unmanaged portfolios of specified securities and do not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. An investment’s portfolio may differ significantly from the securities in the index.  This material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA” or “we”, “our”, “us”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Alternative investments are designed only for sophisticated investors who are able to bear the risk of the loss of their entire investment. Investing in alternative investments should be viewed as illiquid and generally not readily marketable or transferable. Investors should be prepared to bear the financial risks of investing in an alternative investment for an indefinite period of time. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. All indexes are unmanaged, and you cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Sector Watch Use of this website is intended for U.S. residents only. Any recommendation, opinion or advice regarding securities or markets contained in such material does not reflect the views of Verdence Capital, and Verdence Capital does not verify any information included in such material. Verdence Capital assumes no responsibility for any fact, recommendation, opinion, or advice contained in any such research material and expressly disclaims any responsibility for any decisions or for the suitability of any security or transaction based on it. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell, or hold a security based on this research will be entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed or influenced by or attributed to Verdence Capital. It is understood that, without exception, any order based on such research that is placed for execution is and will be treated as an UNRECOMMENDED AND UNSOLICITED ORDER. Further, Verdence Capital assumes no responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any such research or for updating such research, which is subject to change without notice at any time. Verdence Capital does not provide tax, or legal advice. Under no circumstance is the information contained within this research to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any particular investment/security. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Commodity‐related products, including futures, carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity‐related products may be extremely volatile, illiquid and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions, regardless of the length of time shares are held. Data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes. Verdence Capital shall not be liable for any errors or delay in the content, or for any action taken in reliance on any content. Weekly Insights/Qtrly & Annual Outlook The indexes presented are unmanaged portfolios of specified securities and do not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. An investment’s portfolio may differ significantly from the securities in the index. Semi-Annual Chart Pack Where shown, performance information presented is that which has been calculated and presented by an unaffiliated third-party manager. We have no insight into the performance of the advisor/product/account or fund shown and do not attempt to determine whether the performance presented is accurate. Therefore, the performance could be incorrect, overstated or not reflective of actual trading of client funds. There is the potential that the performance shown is a back test and not the result of real investment advice and trading. As such, it could not be relied upon as indicative of future returns of a particular strategy. Where performance shown is that of a pooled account, limited partnership, or private equity fund, you should be aware that there is a significant lack of transparency into the operations and investment process and investment vehicles invested in. As a result, pricing and valuation of the underlying holdings which produced the stated performance could be incorrect, stale, or overstated and therefore the performance figures presented cannot be relied upon. Before investing, we encourage you to request additional information, particularly performance information, of any product that you are considering for your client. You should read, as applicable, the Prospectus, SAI, Composite Disclosure and/or performance disclosure associated with any product that you are considering for investment for your or your client’s. Products shown may have minimum account sizes or minimum investments which may preclude retail and non-high net worth investors from being able to invest in these products. You should be aware that certain LPs may be closed to new investors and therefore your clients may be prevented from investing in these products. Portfolio Implementation and Rationales The SMA Asset Allocation Models do not represent a personalized recommendation of a particular investment strategy to you or your clients. You should not buy or sell an investment without first considering whether it is appropriate for your client’s portfolio. Additionally, you should review and consider any recent market news. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Investments in growth stocks may experience price volatility due to their sensitivity to market fluctuations and dependence on future earnings expectations. Sector allocation references to market capitalization (“smid cap” or “micro caps” etc.) may be subject to special risks given their characteristic narrow markets, limited financial resources, and less liquid stocks, all of which may cause price volatility. International/global investing can involve special risks, such as political changes and currency fluctuations. These risks are heightened in emerging markets. A significant percentage of the underlying investments in aggressive asset allocation portfolio investments have a higher-than-average risk exposure. You should consider your risk tolerance of each of your clients carefully before choosing such a strategy. An investment with multiple underlying investments (which may include asset-allocation or custom blended investments) may be subject to the expenses of those underlying investments in addition to those of the investment itself. Investments may reside in the specialty category due to 1) allowable investment flexibility that precludes classification in standard asset categories and/or 2) investment concentration in a limited group of securities or industry sectors. Investments in this category may be more volatile than less flexible and/or less concentrated investments and may be appropriate as only a minor component in an investor’s overall portfolio. Investment Managers You and your clients should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of Funds discussed. This and other important information are contained in the respective Fund prospectuses and summary prospectuses, which should be read carefully before investing. Investment portfolio statistics change over time. Current performance may be lower or higher than return data quoted herein. The investment return and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate; so, an investor’s shares/units, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Verdence relies heavily on unaudited third-party data. Data sources include public data, such as mutual fund data, and non-public data, such as information provided by other investment advisors and managers of limited partnership pooled accounts. Data and/or statistics included on this Portal, including references to performance, opinions, ratings, rankings, manager statistics and demographic information, product, or strategy descriptions, either quantitative or qualitative, are based upon information reasonably available to us as of the applicable date(s) then-published. Information has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but these sources cannot be guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. All data and information produced by a third party has the potential to be incorrect, incomplete, or otherwise misleading. No implication shall be created that the information contained on the Site is correct, including as of any time subsequent to the publish date, and Verdence does not undertake an obligation to update such information at any time after such date. Verdence makes not warranty or representation of the veracity of the data and information and its use of the information should not be implied as an endorsement of any material or statements made. Data, particularly non-public data, is subject to error and where the information is not audited, the potential for error is greater. Where shown, performance information presented is that which has been calculated and presented by an unaffiliated third-party manager. We have no insight into the performance of the advisor/product/account or fund shown and do not attempt to determine whether the performance presented is accurate. Therefore, the performance could be incorrect, overstated or not reflective of actual trading of client funds. There is the potential that the performance shown is a back test and not the result of real investment advice and trading. As such, it could not be relied upon as indicative of future returns of a particular strategy. Where performance shown is that of a pooled account, limited partnership, or private equity fund, you should be aware that there is a significant lack of transparency into the operations and investment process and investment vehicles invested in. As a result, pricing and valuation of the underlying holdings which produced the stated performance could be incorrect, stale, or overstated and therefore the performance figures presented cannot be relied upon. Before investing, we encourage you to request additional information, particularly performance information, of any product that you are considering for your client. You should read, as applicable, the Prospectus, SAI, Composite Disclosure and/or performance disclosure associated with any product that you are considering for investment for your or your client’s. Certain products shown may have account minimums or minimum investment sizes that are unattainable for your clients and therefore they may not be eligible to invest in these products. Reference to registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) does not imply that the SEC has endorsed or approved the qualifications of Verdence or its respective representatives to provide any advisory services described on the Site.

Read more