WEEKLY INSIGHTS

October 28, 2024
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Key Takeaways:

  • U.S. economic growth to lead developed economies.
  • Developed European countries are at risk.
  • IMF warns of global debt levels.
  • Central banks have “major achievement,” but risks remain.
  • IMF may be too optimistic on U.S. consumer.

International Monetary Fund Lowers Global Growth Forecast

Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a warning to the global economy. “Downside risks are increasing and now dominate [the organization’s] outlook,” according to the IMF’s Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. As a result of rising geopolitical risks and weaker long-term growth prospects, the organization lowered their global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, slightly lower than their July forecast. The organization praised the work of global central banks in their fight against inflation, however, they reiterated the need for them to remain vigilant in fully bringing down inflationary pressures. This week, we dive deeper into the IMF’s outlook and provide an overview of key areas investors should monitor.

  • U.S. to lead the developed economies: The IMF upgraded the outlook for U.S. growth. The organization expects U.S. GDP to increase 1.9% in 2025, vs. 1.7% for all advanced economies. Rising real wages are driving the increase in growth as consumer spending remains robust. In addition, the U.S. is seeing faster growth due to increased AI related investments as well.
  • Developed European countries diverge from U.S.: European nations have seen their global growth estimates revised lower. The IMF blamed geopolitical tensions as one of the key contributors. Additionally, the EU is more exposed to commodity prices. According to a September report from the European Commission, EU companies are still paying two to three times more for electricity, and four to five times more for natural gas, compared to U.S. firms.1
  • Global debt cited as a concern: The IMF cited concerns about surging public debt, which is expected to reach $100 trillion, or 93% of world GDP, by the end of this year, according to the organization. The U.S. and China were cited as key contributors to the increase. The report issued last week stated, “risks to the [global] debt outlook are heavily tilted to the upside” and urged governments to make decisions aimed to stabilize borrowing, despite growing pressure to support aging populations and increase security.
  • Central banks and inflation: The IMF recognized “the decline in inflation without a global recession is a major achievement.” The organization, however, explained central banks should remain cautious moving forward as spikes in food and energy prices from geopolitical conflict and climate shocks have the potential to derail the progress on inflation.

The Bottom Line:
We agree with the IMF that there are many global risks that all economies should be concerned with. The weak outlook for China puts Europe at risk and inflation is something that should not be ignored. We think the IMF may be a little too optimistic about the U.S. consumer given their growing use of credit cards, mixed confidence and emergent cracks in the labor market started to emerge. As a result, we think global growth will be lowered again in their next outlook for global GDP. The biggest risk we see is global debt. The U.S., especially, has a burgeoning budget deficit with no fix in sight. This challenges the long term growth prospects for the U.S.

Your Economic and Market Detailed Recaps

  • Sales of previously owned homes plunge to 14-year low.
  • Interest on federal debt exceeds $1 trillion.
  • Consumer sentiment climbs to highest level since April.
  • Tech-heavy Nasdaq drives U.S. performance.
  • Treasury yields climb to highest level in three-months.
  • Energy prices carry commodity performance.

Weekly Economic Recap — U.S. Interest on Federal Debt Officially Exceeds $1 Trillion

The Leading Economic Indicators Index fell more then expected in September (-0.5% vs. -0.3% est.). This is the 31st out of the past 33 months that the Index has declined, the longest stretch on record. Weakness in new orders continued to be a major drag on the headline number.

Sales of previously owned homes fell to a near 14-year low in September. Prospective buyers are waiting for further declines in mortgage rates, despite the 30YR rate being at a two-year low. While the supply of existing homes for sale still remains below pre-pandemic levels, 1.39 million homes were for sale in September, a 23% increase from a year ago.

The U.S. budget deficit grew to $1.833 trillion for fiscal year 2024, marking the third-largest federal deficit in U.S. history. Interest on federal debt exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in history. As a percentage of GDP, interest costs climbed to 3.93%, which is below the 1991 record of 4.69%, but the highest since December 1998.

New applications for unemployment benefits fell for a second week to levels last seen before Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Initial claims fell by 15k to 227k as the impact of the hurricanes seems to be dissipating more than anticipated.

Orders placed with U.S. factories for durable goods declined for the second straight month in September. Capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, increased for the second straight month.

The final reading on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed confidence among consumers was higher for the third straight month and moved to its highest level since April.

Weekly Market Recap — Large-Cap Growth Leads U.S. Equities Higher Despite Treasury Yields Climbing

Equities: The MSCI AC World Index was lower for the first time in three weeks. Investors were watching corporate earnings closely last week and repriced Fed rate cut expectations. In the U.S., the tech-heavy Nasdaq posted its seventh consecutive week of gains as investors prepare for mega-cap tech earnings. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were both lower, snapping six-week winning streaks.

Fixed Income: The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Index was lower for the fifth time in the past six weeks. The 10YR U.S. Treasury yield climbed to its highest level in three-months as investors digested a flood of Fed commentary that suggested they may not cut rates as aggressively as expected. Floating rate bonds and leveraged loans were the only area of fixed income higher for the week.

Commodities/FX: The Bloomberg Commodity Index was higher for the first time in three weeks. Natural gas prices led commodies higher on increased demand expectations. Crude oil was higher for the third time in four weeks as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated.


market insights


Data is as of Setpember 2024.
Source: FactSet Research Systems, Verdence Capital Advisors

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